An Independent Analysis of Global Warming [Updated May 24, 2011]

By Heinz Lycklama, PhD in Nuclear Physics


The issue of Global Warming (GW) has generated a lot of heat lately.  Realizing that policy makers and politicians need accurate scientific information to make good public policy decisions, I decided to look into the science behind GW more closely as an independent scientist.  I considered the following as a starting point for my analysis:

1. UN IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

2. U.S. Senate Minority Report, published and updated March 16, 2009.

3. NIPCC Report "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate" published April 2008.

4. NIPCC Report "Climate Change Reconsidered" published June 2, 2009.

5. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference Papers, March 2009.

6. International Climate Change Conference Papers, March 2008, March 2009 and June 2009.

7. Global Warming Petition Project wtih 31,000+ signatures from scientists.

References for these documents as well as many others used to perform my analysis are listed below.

To me the key issues/questions to be resolved were:

1.  Has there been a GW trend in the recent past?

2.   Is GW due to anthropogenic causes, e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2)?

3.  Is GW due to natural causes?

4.  Do we need to do something about GW immediately?

5. Is the recommended solution for GW based on good science?

6.  Who is hurt by the recommended GW solution?

7. What conclusions can we draw from the analysis?

8.  What should the GW community do next?


My analysis produced some surprising results:

1.   The number of climate scientists who dissent from the UN IPCC report is at least ten times greater than the number of climate scientists who contributed to the report.

2. The global temperature changes (up and down) have been more extreme over the last few thousand years than we are experiencing today.

3. Many climate scientists have determined that we are now entering a period of global cooling (GC.)

4. There is no scientific consensus on the extent of GW today.

5. There is no scientific consensus on the cause(s) of GW.

6. The assumption of GW due to human activity has much lower correlation with average temperature data than the assumption of GW due to natural causes.

7. The science underlying GW is far from settled.

8. The views of dissenting climate scientists have not been adequately considered in the UN IPCC reports.

9. The implementation of the "consensus" GW solution is not very likely to be cost effective.

Details of my analysis can be found in GWanalysis.htm  (or GWanalysis.pdf).  The analysis provides reasons for my conclusions and offers some suggestions on what the GW community can do next.   As scientists we need to get the science underlying GW right first so that policy makers and politicians have the most recent and accurate scientific information available about the extent and causes of GW.  This information will then enable policy makers and politicians to recommend the appropriate solution and to establish good public policy based on good science.
 

 

Footnote:  Climate scientists should pay special attention to the last finding documented by the NIPCC on page 8 in the Executive Summary section of their "Climate Change Reconsidered" report:

"There can be little doubt that ethanol mandates and subsidies have made both food and energy more, not less, expensive and therefore less available to a growing population. The extensive damage to natural ecosystems already caused by this poor policy decision, and the much greater destruction yet to come, are a high price to pay for refusing to understand and utilize the true science of climate change."

 
Let’s make sure that we use good science in establishing public policies related to climate change! Reference #101 below is a good step in the right direction.
 



For more information on this topic contact:

Dr. Heinz Lycklama  [Professional Bio]

            Ph/Fx:          360-403-7445/6

Email:          heinz@osta.com

Website:      www.osta.com


References [Updated May 24, 2011]


-

1.      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change - Wikipedia writeup on “Climate Change.”

2.      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming - Wikipedia writeup on “Global Warming.”

3.      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change - Wikipedia writeup on IPCC.

4.      http://www.eoearth.org/article/Causes_of_climate_change - The Encyclopedia of Earth article on “Causes of Climate Change.”

5.      http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf - Report of WG1 of IPCC, Summary for Policymakers – 2007.

6.      http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/wg1-report-2007-02.pdf - PowerPoint presentation on the Physical Science Basis for Climate Change.

7.      http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-ts.pdf - Technical Summary Report of WG1 of IPCC.

8.      http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html - U. S. EPA article on “Past Climate Change.”

9.      http://www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20070201_monckton.pdf - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007 Analysis and Summary, February 2007, by Lord Christopher Monckton.

10.  http://climatecongress.ku.dk/presentations - Presentations made at the Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen, March 10-12, 2009.

11.  http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork08/proceedings.html - The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change held in NYC, March 2-4, 2008.

12.  http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork09/proceedings.html#  - International Climate Change Conference held in NYC – March 8-10, 2009.

13.  http://www.heartland.org/events/WashingtonDC09/index.html - Third International Conference on Climate Change held in Washington, DC, June 2, 2009.

14.  http://www.heartland.org/custom/semod_policybot/pdf/22835.pdf - Heartland 2008 Report (50 pages) on “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”                  [Summary for Policymakers of the 2008 Report of the NIPCC.]

15.  http://www.heartland.org/books/NIPCCFulltoc.html - Climate Change Reconsidered: Outline of NIPCC Report expected in May 2009.

16.  http://www.nipccreport.org/ - Climate Change Reconsidered: The (868 page) Report of the NIPCC, published on June 2, 2009.

17.  http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/nongovernmental-international-panel-on-climate-change-nipcc-2009-report - Summary of the NIPCC Report Findings and Conclusions, published on June 3, 2009.

18.  http://www.sepp.org/ - Science & Environmental Policy Project.

19.  http://www.sepp.org/publications/GWbooklet/withfigures.html - The Scientific Case Against The Global Climate Treaty by Fred Singer, July 1999.

20.  http://www.sepp.org/publications/Kyoto%20not%20backed%20by%20Science-May%202002.doc - The Kyoto Protocol is not backed by Science, May 2002.

21.  http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2674E64F-802A-23AD-490B-BD9FAF4DCDB7 - U.S. Senate Minority Report: More Than 700 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims.

22.  http://www.petitionproject.org/ - GlobalWarming Petition Project, signed by more than 31,000 scientists.

23.  www.co2science.org - Craig Idso’s website on CO2 Science.

24.  http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming  - Global Warming Science.

25.  http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_SimplifiedNutshell.htm - Global Warming - the Short Version of Why the Anthropogenic CO2 Theory is Wrong.

26.  http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=54 - International Climate Science Coalition, The Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change.

27.  http://www.climatescienceinternational.org - Website for International Climate Science Coalition.

28.  http://globalwarmingclearinghouse.blogspot.com - Global Warming Clearinghouse with references to key reports, articles, papers and blogs with the latest information available on Global Warming.

29.  http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10783  - Don Easterbrook article on “Global Cooling is Here,” 11/2/08.

30.  http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20090416/bs_prweb/prweb2329394_2 - Web Article on Natural GW/GC (global cooling) cycles, 4/16/09.

31.  http://www.globalweathercycles.com/ - Global Weather Cycles eBook by Meteorologist David Dilley.

32.  http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/moregw.htm - The Myth of Global Warming.

33.  http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/fig8.htm - Global Temperature Anomalies (1979-2002).

34.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzSzItt6h-s - The Great Global Warming Swindle – Produced by WAGTV.

35.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io-Tb7vTamY - Global Warming Hoax.

36.  http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming.html - The Global Warming Scam.

37.  http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/38574742.html - The Amazing Story Behind the Global Warming Scam.

38.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDI2NVTYRXU&feature=related - Al Gore Debates Global Warming.

39.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI&feature=related - Climate Change – Is CO2 the Cause?

40.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fCP_nHRjP8&feature=channel - Evidence CO2 does not cause dangerous Global warming.

41.  http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/ - Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler? A tale of two thermometers, Steven Goddard, posted in Science, 5/2/08.

42.  http://www.petitionproject.org/gw_article/GWReview_OISM300.pdf - Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Arthur Robinson, et. al., 2007.

43.  http://www.discovery.org/v/30 - The Global Warming Myth – Dr. Noah Robinson, Telecosm 2007.

44.  http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html - Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System.

45.  http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html#anchor2108263 - Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective.

46.  http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2007/6/21/123227.shtml?s=al&promo_code=35F1-1 - Canadian Professor: Prepare for Global Cooling.

47.  The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming, Christopher C. Horner, 2007.

48.  http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/PAS.htm - Position of the Geological Science Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences on the Threat of Global Warming.

49.  http://www.climatecooling.org - Global Climate Cooling Facts.

50.  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months - January 2008, 4 sources say “globally cooler” in the past 12 months.

51.  http://www.metro.us/us/comic.xml?path=%2fus%2farticle%2f2009%2f04%2f27%2f04%2f4243-82%2findex.xml&__toolbar=0&id=comp:000049c059d0:000000508d:16fe - Global cooling (shown in four data sets).

52.  http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html - Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System.

53.  http://video.newsmax.com/?bcpid=20972460001&bclid=22770166001&bctid=23619354001?s=al&promo_code=8009-1 - Interview with Dr. William Gray, Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University on “Global Warming Not Our Biggest Problem.”

54.  http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/jgr07/M&M.JGR07-background.pdf - Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data, Ross McKitrick and Patrick Michaels.

55.  http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/05/global-warming-causing-carbon-dioxide-increases-a-simple-model/ - Global Warming Causing CO2 Increases: A Simple Model, Roy Spencer.

56.  http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=471&Itemid=1 - Mankind has an insignificant impact on the climate of planet earth, Jay Lehr, Ph.D., Science Director of the Heartland Institute, USA.

57.  http://www.sydneyminingclub.org/presentations/2008/november/plimer/player.html - Human-Induced Climate Change: A Load of Hot Air - Professor Ian Plimer.

58.  http://joannenova.com.au - The Skepitcs Handbook on Global Warming, written by Joanne Nova, former believer in GHG, 2009.

59. http://www.fraserinstitute.org/Commerce.Web/product_files/CriticalTopicsInGlobalWarming.pdf - Critical Topics in Global Warming: Supplementary Analysis of the Independent Summary for Policymakers, Fraser Institute, March 2009.

60.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change - Wikipedia article on Scientific Opinion on Climate Change.

61.  http://www.skepticalscience.com - Skeptical Science, Examining the science of Global Warming skepticism.

62.  http://www.cornwallalliance.org/docs/suppressed-epa-memo-on-global-warming.pdf -Proposed NCEE Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for GHG Emissions under the Clean Air Act, Mar. 09.

63. http://carbon-sense.com/2009/09/13/climate-skeptics-090911 - PowerPoint slide show explaining the Climate Skeptics’ scientific arguments against the threats of human-caused Global Warming and major problems associated with proposed Cap-n-Trade legislation.

64. http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/no-man-made-global-warming.pdf - Man-made Global Warming does not Exist, October 2009.

65. http://carbon-sense.com/2009/10/11/ipcc-science-scrutinised - Scrutiny of UN IPCC Climate Science.

66. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/docs/a-call-to-truth-prudence-and-protection-of-the-poor.pdf - A Call to Truth, Prudence, and Protection of the Poor: An Evangelical Response to Global Warming, The Cornwall Alliance, 2006.

67. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/blog/item/movie-debunks-global-warming-hype - Cornwall Alliance introduces movie “Not Evil Just Wrong” that showcases the human cost of global warming hype, October 2009.

68. http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/monckton_2009.pdf - Christopher Monckton presentation on the Global Warming alarmism using statistics and charts – October 2009.

69. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/press_releases/Press-Release_No-Climate-Crisis.pdf - Proved: There is no Climate Crisis, Paper by Christopher Monckton, July 2008.

70.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html - Climate Change: This is the worst scientific scandal of our generation, Christopher Booker, November 28, 2009.

71.  http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece - Climate Change Data Dumped, Nov. 29, 2009.

72.  http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_Category=32 - National Center for Policy Analysis list of documents exposing Climate Change political agenda, December 2009.

73. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/Monckton-Caught%20Green-Handed%20Climategate%20Scandal.pdf - ClimateGate: Caught Green-Handed, An SPPI Paper by Christopher Monckton, November 30, 2009.

74. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/450_peer_reviewed_papers.pdf - 450 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of AGW-Caused Global Warming, November 16, 2009.

75. http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/05/21/disproving-the-anthropogenic-global-warming-agw-problem - Disproving the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Problem – by Leonard Weinstein on April 25, 2009.

76. http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork08/PowerPoint/Tuesday/miskolczi.pdf - Physics of the Planetary Greenhouse Effect, Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, March 2008.

77. http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork08/PowerPoint/Tuesday/zagoni.pdf - Some Paleoclimatic Consequences of Dr. Miskolczi’s New Greenhouse Theory, Dr. Miklos Zagoni, March 2008.

78. http://landshape.org/dokuwiki/doku.php?id=introduction - The New Climate Theory of Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi.

79. http://met.hu/doc/idojaras/vol111001_01.pdf - Greenhouse Effect in Semi-transparent Planetary Atmospheres, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi, January 2007.

80. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero - The Smoking Gun at Darwin Zero, Willis Eschenbach, Dec. 12, 2009.

81. http://seoblackhat.com/2007/03/04/global-warming-on-mars-pluto-triton-and-jupiter/ - Global Warming on Mars, Pluto, Triton and Jupiter.

82. http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/billbell.pdf - The Scam of Our Lifetime, Global Warming Caused by Human-made CO2?, Advertisement published in Calgary paper in 2009.

83. http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/188.pdf - The IPCC, the “Hockey Stick” Curve, and the Illusion of Experience, by Stephen McIntyre & Ross McKitrick, November 18, 2003.

84. http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/146138 - Climate Change is Natural: 100 Reasons Why, UK Daily Express, December 15, 2009.

85. http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/180_Eugenics.pdf - Science and Politics: Global Warming and Eugenics, Richard Lindzen (MIT), August 1995.

86. http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/fact_based_climate_debate/ - Fact-based Climate Debate, Lee Gerhard, IPCC Expert Reviewer, Dec. 17, 2009.

87. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html - The Graph of Temperature vs. Number of Stations.

88. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/cc.html - Global Warming: Competing Views – a webpage maintained by Ross McKitrick.

89. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/APEC-hockey.pdf - What is the ‘Hockey Stick’ Debate About?” Ross McKitrick, April 4, 2005.

90. http://www.cfact.org/a/1594/All-pain-no-gain - All Pain, No Gain, Oct. 8, 2009.

91. http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/grass-trees-climate-food.pdf - Grasses, Trees, Climate and Food, by the Carbon Sense Coalition, March 2010.

92. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,686697,00.html - A Superstorm for Global Warming Research, April 2010.

93. http://www.cfact.org/a/1717/Lord-Monckton-at-Bonn-climate-talks - Lord Monckton at Bonn UN Climate Talks, April 9, 2010.

94. http://www.cfact.org/a/1718/Global-warmings-weak-links - Global Warming’s Weak Links, April 9, 2010.

95. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/apr/07/global-warmings-unscientific-method/ - Global Warming’s Unscientific Method, April 7, 2010.

96. http://wattsupwiththat.com/climategate - Everything about Climategate.

97. http://www.climate-skeptic.com - Climate Skeptic website.

98. http://www.coyoteblog.com/Skeptics_Guide_to_Anthropogenic_Global_Warming_v1.0.pdf - A Skeptical Layman’s Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming v1.01, Warren Meyer, July 3, 2007.

99. http://www.climate-skeptic.com/Climate%20Presentation%20Annotated%201-1-2010.pdf - Catastrophe Denied: A Critique of Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming Theory, Warren Meyer, November 10, 2009.

100. http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2010/01/catastrophe-denied-the-science-of-the-skeptics-position.html - Catastrophe Denied: The Science of the Skeptic’s Position, Warren Meyer, January 24, 2010.

101. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1004/S00006.htm - Science, Climate Change and Integrity, Royal Society of New Zealand, April 7, 2010.

102.  http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html - Global Warming Test, a simple ten question test.

103.  http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/two_dead_elephants.pdf - Two Dead Elephants in Parliament, Malcolm Roberts, Feb. 7, 2010.

104.  http://www.minemanagers.com.au/client_images/895936.pdf - Testimony of Roy W. Spencer Before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on July 22, 2008.

105.  http://www.noconsensus.org/ipcc-audit/findings-main-page.php - There is No “Scientific Consensus” on Global Warming – Citizen Audit Main Findings [on 2007 UN IPCC report] released on April 14, 2010.

106.  http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/climate_science_corrupted.pdf - Climate Science Corrupted, John McLean, Nov. 20, 2009.

107.  http://mclean.ch/climate/global_warming.htm - Global Warming Issues, posted by John McLean.

108.  http://www.co2science.org/education/truthalerts/v13/cowpea.php - CO2 Truth-Alert Archive, April 2010.

109.  http://international-environmental-affairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/new-scientist-does-about-turn-on-global-warming#ixzz0lKJjIRwG - ‘New Scientist’ Does About Turn on Global Warming, April 16, 2010.

110.  http://www.cfact.org/a/1732/Questions-posed-for-Kerry-Lieberman-on-new-climateenergy-bill - Questions posed for Kerry, Lieberman on new climate-energy bill, May 12, 2010.

111.  http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/884.pdf - Understand Climate Science Before Making Policy, William Happer, May 14, 2010.

112.  http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/885.pdf - Understand Climate Science Before Making Climate Policy, Roger Cohen, May 14, 2010.

113.  http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/886.pdf - Links to a Sampling of Scientific Literature, Reports, Presentations, and Other Material, May 14, 2010.

114.  http://cei.org/news-release/2010/05/11/kerry-graham-lieberman-bill-huge-payoff-big-business - Kerry-(Graham)-Lieberman Bill a Hugh Payoff to Big Business, May 11, 2010.

115.  http://www.answersingenesis.org/articles/arj/v3/n1/bible-science-perspective-on-global-warming - A Proposed Bible-Science Perspective on Global Warming, - Rod Martin, 5/26/10.

116.  http://opinion.financialpost.com/2010/06/06/legal-verdict-manmade-global-warming-science-doesn%E2%80%99t-withstand-scrutiny/ - Legal Verdict: Manmade Global Warming Science Doesn’t Withstand Scrutiny.

117.  http://www.probeinternational.org/UPennCross.pdf - Global Warming Advocacy Science: A Cross Examination.

118.  http://opinion.financialpost.com/2010/06/13/the-ipcc-consensus-on-climate-change-was-phoney-says-ipcc-insider - The IPCC consensus on climate change was phoney, says IPCC insider.

119.  http://www.firstthings.com/article/2011/05/the-truth-about-greenhouse-gases - William Happer article on the dubious science of the climate crusaders.

120.  http://blogs.forbes.com/patrickmichaels/2011/05/19/sound-fury-and-the-policy-of-climate-change - OpEd piece by Patrick Michaels on Climate of Fear in the May 2011 of the Forbes magazine.

121.  http://gisandscience.com/2010/05/17/national-academy-of-sciences-to-release-three-reports-in-the-americas-climate-choices-study-on-may-19 - National Academy of Sciences (NAS) release of three reports in the “America’s Climate Choices” Study on May 19, 2011.

122.  http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=05192010 – Press release accompanying the NAS “America’s Climate Choices” Study.

123.  http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2011/TWTW%202011-5-21.pdf – The (5/21/11) Report by The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), www.sepp.org.

124.  http://www.galileomovement.com.au/galileo_movement.php - Announcement of the Galileo Movement in Australia in May 2011.

125.  http://climatecommission.govspace.gov.au/files/2011/05/Climate-Commission-Science-Report-Key-Messages1.pdf - Australian Government Climate Commission Report – The Critical Decade: Key messages.

126.  http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/MediaRelease20110523.pdf - The Galileo Movement response to the Australian Climate Commission Report.

127.  http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/Report20110523.pdf - Exposing the Climate Commission’s unscientific ‘Key Messages’ in its report.


Emails circulated with the original report of May 5, 2009 plus subsequent updates of June 5, September 14, December 1, 2009 and April 13, 2010.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Message accompanying Update #4 issued on April 13, 2010:

Dear all,
 
This is the fourth update of my report "An Independent Analysis of
Global Warming" first issued on May 5, 2009. You can find my
latest report "GWanalysis.pdf" attached to this email. The report
and the accompanying email is also at my website - www.osta.com/gw.
Earlier updates were issued on June 5, Sep. 14 and Dec. 1, 2009.
Emails accompanying the original report as well as the updates
are included below at the end of this email for convenience.

The Dec. 1, 2009 update was issued at the time of the
ClimateGate news and just before the UN Copenhagen
meeting. Much has happened since then. ClimateGate was
followed by the revelation of other errors in the UN IPCC
reports that cast significant doubt on the "science" behind
the conclusions drawn by the UN IPCC. It is now clear that:
    1. The science behind Climate Change is FAR from settled.
    2. The "peers" involved in peer review were selected by the
        UN IPCC based on their biased support of the UN agenda.
    3. Climate data used by the UN IPCC was "cherry picked"
         to support the UN agenda.
    4. More and more climate scientists have dissented from the
        UN IPCC reports.
    5. Some original climate data used to draw conclusions
        about Climate Change was deliberately destroyed.
    6. Climate data was not made available to other climate
        scientists so that they could verify UN IPCC conclusions.
    7. Any "climate change" legislation is very premature.

I was encouraged by the recent article on "Science, Climate Change
and Integrity" posted by the Royal Society of New Zealand on April 7.
(See Reference #101) They are recommending a more transparent
approach to the dissemination of information on Climate Change
science. They recognize that the science practiced by the UN IPCC
lacked review by dissenting climate scientists. Debate and skepticism
are encouraged and will lead to the truth about climate science sooner.
I'd like to see more cooperative efforts among climate scientists.
However, there is NO overwhelming evidence for AGW as stated
in this article, and doing something because there MIGHT be a
problem can do more harm than good.

What you will find new in this report are:
    1. 27 more technical references for a total of 101 references.
    2. More significant technical input from climate change
        skeptics. Reference #100 is one good example.

My suggestions are as follows:
    1. Climate scientists, please consider this new technical input.
    2. For those who have posted my earlier reports on
        websites, please update with the updated report
        attached to this email.
    3. Please disseminate this updated report to those with
        an interest in Climate Change issues.

Thanks for your consideration of this updated report and for your
interest in the Global Warming issue.

 Dr. Heinz Lycklama
------------------------------------------------------------------
Message accompanying Update #3 issued on December 1, 2009:

Dear all,
 
Given everything that has happened over the past few months,
especially the developing ClimateGate scandal of the last week,
I thought it would be appropriate to update my independent
analysis report on Global Warming. This is the third update
that I have issued. The original email of May 5, the update
issued on June 5, and the update issued on September 14
are included below for completeness. The latest updated report
is attached to this email and can also be found at www.osta.com/gw.
 
The new information that has come to the surface confirms my
worst suspicions (as a scientist) based on my initial analysis.
It is now obvious that:
    1. The science behind Climate Change is NOT settled.
    2. Despite being told that all UN IPCC technical material
        was peer reviewed it is now clear that only "peers"
        who agreed with the UN IPCC agenda were selected.
    3. Much of the original data used by the UN IPCC was
        destroyed by its members so that other climate scientists
        could not verify that the data was used correctly.
    4. The UN IPCC has a history of fabricating their data, a
        prime example being the construction of the infamous
        "hockey stick" graph that has now been totally discredited.
    5. Many of the climate scientists who dissented on the
        UN IPCC reports [they outnumber the UN IPCC climate
        scientists 13 to 1] were intimidated and misrepresented.
        Their scientific opinions were disregarded by the IPCC.
    6. Climate scientists who dissented from the UN IPCC
        agenda and conclusions were not allowed to participate
        in any way in the UN IPCC process, let alone receive
        significant grants to fund their work.
As a scientist, I have been appalled at how science has been
hijacked in the interest of the political agenda of the UN IPCC
for the benefit of some of its members and sponsors. This is NOT
science, political science perhaps, but NOT science as we know it.
 
What you will find new in this report are the following:
    1. Eleven more technical references for a total of 74.
    2. Christopher Monckton has produced two excellent
        documents on Global Warming alarmism (#68) and
        on what has been revealed by the ClimateGate
        scandal (#73).
    3. A list of 450 peer-reviewed papers supporting skepticism
        of AGW-caused Global Warming (#74) is also now
        available for analysis.
    4. I continue to endeavour to make sure that policy makers
        and politicians who may propose Climate Change
        legislation have the latest scientific information available.
 
There are still two key questions that the proponents of
Climate Change legislation have not yet answered:
    1. Scientific proof that a) increased emission of CO2 into the
        atmosphere is a significant cause of the increase of the
        average global temperature, and b) that man is the major
        contributor to the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere.
    2. What would the cost be of reducing man-made CO2 emission
        into the atmosphere by XX% by the year 20yy?
Until these two questions are answered to our satisfaction,
we have no solid basis for introducing climate change legislation.
If climate change is due to natural causes and cycles, as it has
been observed to be for thousands of years, we have no reason to
believe that man can possibly control the earth's climate.
 
We do not want to repeat the mistake of using corn as a biofuel
to produce ethanol; this has increased the cost of both food AND
energy and resulted in a significant extra cost to the poor, who
can ill afford it!
 
My conclusions and suggestions remain the same, but the
urgency of considering the new information has increased.
Based on this urgency, I would ask that:
    1. You share this information, especially the new Monckton
        reports (Ref. #68 & #73), the list of peer-reviewed papers
        (Ref. #74), the list of documents to do with ClimateGate
        (Ref. #72), and my updated report [GWanalysis.pdf]
        with your colleagues.
    2. Climate Scientists, please give this material its due consideration.
    3. Newspaper reporters and website/blog writers, please inform
        your readers about this new information.
    4. Those with the appropriate connections, please make sure
        that all this information finds its way to persons
        associated with:
                a. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
                b. US Senate Minority Report
                c. NIPCC Report on "Climate Change Reconsidered"
                d. Global Warming Petition Project
                e. Climate Change conference attendees.
                f. Influential policy makers and politicians.
If you should find any errors in my report, please let me know.
Thanks for your consideration of this material and for your interest
in the issue of Global Warming.
 
Dr. Heinz Lycklama
------------------------------------------------------------------
Message accompanying Update #2 issued on September 14, 2009:
 
Dear all,
 
This is the second update of my "Independent Analysis of Global Warming (GW)"
report [attached and available at www.osta.com/gw] done for the following reasons:
    1. Climate Sceptics has produced a new very clear Slideshow which
        explains why an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) [also known
        as Cap-n-Trade] is unnecessary. The PowerPoint slideshow can
        be found at http://carbon-sense.com/2009/09/13/climate-skeptics-090911.
        The slideshow explains in layman terms that:
            a. No one has any evidence that CO2 will over heat the Earth.
            b. A Cap-n-Trade scheme will never ever prevent climate change.
            c. The economic cost of a Cap-n-Trade program is prohibitive
                and counter-productive.
    2. An overwhelming number of climate scientists (more than 13 to 1) refute
        the UN IPCC report and its incorrect climate change model predictions.
    3. The response to my 1st & 2nd "Independent Analysis of GW"
        reports submitted on May 5 and June 5 has been overwhelmingly
        positive. I have added to my report as a result.
    4. I have added a number of significant references to Climate Change
        information on the Internet. [Total of 63 at this time.]
    5. The "to:" list for the updated report has been significantly
        increased to include more climate scientists.
    6. I have added a "cc:" list for newspaper reporters/editors,
        web writers and blog writers in order to get the word out.
    7. I wanted to make sure that policy makers and politicians
        who may propose some significant policies regarding
        Climate Change have the latest material available.
 
My conclusions and suggestions remain the same, but the
urgency of considering the new information has increased.
Based on this urgency, I would ask that:
    1. You share this information, especially the new Heartland Institute
        report (Ref. #16), the new Climate Sceptics Slideshow (Ref. #63),
        and my updated Analysis report [GWanalysis.pdf] with your colleagues.
    2. Climate Scientists give this material its due consideration.
    3. Newspaper reporters and website/blog writers inform
        their readers about this new information.
    4. Those with the appropriate connections, please make sure
        that all this information finds its way to persons
        associated with:
                a. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
                b. US Senate Minority Report
                c. NIPCC Report on "Climate Change Reconsidered"
                d. Global Warming Petition Project
                e. Climate Change conference attendees.
                f. Influential policy makers and politicians.
If you should find any errors in my report, please let me know.
Thanks for your consideration of this material and for your interest
in the issue of Global Warming.
 
Dr. Heinz Lycklama
------------------------------------------------------------------
Message accompanying Update #1 issued on June 5, 2009:
 
Dear all,
 
I'm issuing my updated "Independent Analysis of Global Warming (GW)"
report [attached and available at www.osta.com/gw] for the following reasons:
    1. The Heartland Institute has just published their 868-page
        report on "Climate Change Reconsidered." This is the
        most comprehensive assessment of the errors and
        omissions made in the IPCC Report that I have ever
        seen. It is worthy of being addressed by the IPCC
        and other climate scientists.
    2. The response to my initial "Independent Analysis of GW"
        submitted on May 5 has been overwhelmingly positive.
        I have added to my report as a result.
    3. I have added 15 more significant references to Climate Change
        information on the Internet.
    4. The "to:" list for the updated report has been significantly
        increased to include more climate scientists.
    5. I have added a "cc:" list for newspaper reporters/editors,
        web writers and blog writers in order to get the word out.
    6. I wanted to make sure that policy makers and politicians
        who are about to make some significant policies regarding
        Climate Change had the latest material available.
 
My conclusions and suggestions remain the same, but the
urgency of considering the new information has increased.
Based on this urgency, I would ask that:
    1. You share this information, especially the new Heartland Institute
        report and my updated Analysis report [GWanalysis.pdf] with
        your colleagues.
    2. Climate Scientists give this material its due consideration.
    3. Newspaper reporters and website/blog writers inform
        their readers about this new information.
    4. Those with the appropriate connections, please make sure
        that all this information finds its way to persons
        associated with:
                a. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
                b. US Senate Minority Report
                c. NIPCC Report on "Climate Change Reconsidered"
                d. Global Warming Petition Project
                e. Climate Change conference attendees.
                f. Influential policy makers and politicians.
If you should find any errors in my report, please let me know.
Thanks for your consideration of this material and for your interest
in the issue of Global Warming.
 
Dr. Heinz Lycklama
------------------------------------------------------------------
Message accompanying original report issued on May 5, 2009:
 
This email is addressed to some of the leading scientists actively
involved in the study of the Global Warming (GW) issue. This issue
has become of much interest to people who would be impacted by any
resulting recommendations made by policy makers and politicians
if/when enacted.
 
As an independent scientist I have become concerned by
the apparent lack of scientific consensus on the extent and
cause(s) of GW among those scientists who have diligently
studied this issue - therefore my independent research and
analysis of the science behind the GW issue.
 
My findings, conclusions, and suggestions on how to reach
consensus are documented at the www.osta.com/gw website.
Pointers are also included in this email for easy reference. My
actual report, along with some useful reference material, is attached
as a PDF file but it can also be downloaded from the website.
 
I'm hoping that you will find my report of some value to you, and
that you will forward this message to your colleagues who are
also involved in research into the GW issue. It is my added hope
that ALL climate scientists will work together to reach a true
scientific consensus on the extent and cause(s) of GW.
 
As scientists we need to get the science underlying GW right
so that policy makers and politicians have the most recent and
accurate scientific information available about the extent and
cause(s) of GW. This information will then enable policy makers
and politicians to recommend the appropriate solution, and to
establish good public policy that makes economic sense and
benefits ALL mankind.
 
Thanks for your consideration.
 
Dr. Heinz Lycklama
------------------------------------------------------------------


Heinz Lycklama - heinz@osta.com
Last modified:   May 24, 2011