An Independent Analysis of Global Warming [Updated May 24, 2011]
1. UN IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).
2. U.S. Senate Minority Report, published and updated March 16, 2009.
3. NIPCC Report "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate" published April 2008.
4. NIPCC Report "Climate Change Reconsidered" published June 2, 2009.
5. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference Papers, March 2009.
6. International Climate Change Conference Papers, March 2008, March 2009 and June 2009.
7. Global Warming Petition Project wtih 31,000+ signatures from scientists.References for these documents as well as many others used to perform my analysis are listed below.
To me the key issues/questions to be resolved were:
1. Has there been a GW trend in the recent past?
2. Is GW due to anthropogenic causes, e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2)?
3. Is GW due to natural causes?
4. Do we need to do something about GW immediately?
5. Is the recommended solution for GW based on good science?
6. Who is hurt by the recommended GW solution?
7. What conclusions can we draw from the analysis?
8. What should the GW community do next?
My analysis produced some surprising results:
1. The number of climate scientists who dissent from the UN IPCC report is at least ten times greater than the number of climate scientists who contributed to the report.
2. The global temperature changes (up and down) have been more extreme over the last few thousand years than we are experiencing today.
3. Many climate scientists have determined that we are now entering a period of global cooling (GC.)
4. There is no scientific consensus on the extent of GW today.
5. There is no scientific consensus on the cause(s) of GW.
6. The assumption of GW due to human activity has much lower correlation with average temperature data than the assumption of GW due to natural causes.
7. The science underlying GW is far from settled.
8. The views of dissenting climate scientists have not been adequately considered in the UN IPCC reports.
9. The implementation of the "consensus" GW solution is not very likely to be cost effective.Details of my analysis can be found in GWanalysis.htm (or GWanalysis.pdf). The analysis provides reasons for my conclusions and offers some suggestions on what the GW community can do next. As scientists we need to get the science underlying GW right first so that policy makers and politicians have the most recent and accurate scientific information available about the extent and causes of GW. This information will then enable policy makers and politicians to recommend the appropriate solution and to establish good public policy based on good science.
Footnote: Climate scientists should pay special attention to the last finding documented by the NIPCC on page 8 in the Executive Summary section of their "Climate Change Reconsidered" report:
"There can be little doubt that ethanol mandates and subsidies have made both food and energy more, not less, expensive and therefore less available to a growing population. The extensive damage to natural ecosystems already caused by this poor policy decision, and the much greater destruction yet to come, are a high price to pay for refusing to understand and utilize the true science of climate change."
Let’s make sure that we use good science in establishing public policies related to climate change! Reference #101 below is a good step in the right direction.
For more information on this topic contact:
Dr. Heinz Lycklama [Professional Bio]
References [Updated May 24, 2011]
1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change - Wikipedia writeup on “Climate Change.”
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming - Wikipedia writeup on “Global Warming.”
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change - Wikipedia writeup on IPCC.
4. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Causes_of_climate_change - The Encyclopedia of Earth article on “Causes of Climate Change.”
5. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf - Report of WG1 of IPCC, Summary for Policymakers – 2007.
6. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/wg1-report-2007-02.pdf - PowerPoint presentation on the Physical Science Basis for Climate Change.
7. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-ts.pdf - Technical Summary Report of WG1 of IPCC.
8. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html - U. S. EPA article on “Past Climate Change.”
9. http://www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20070201_monckton.pdf - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007 Analysis and Summary, February 2007, by Lord Christopher Monckton.
10. http://climatecongress.ku.dk/presentations - Presentations made at the Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen, March 10-12, 2009.
11. http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork08/proceedings.html - The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change held in NYC, March 2-4, 2008.
12. http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork09/proceedings.html# - International Climate Change Conference held in NYC – March 8-10, 2009.
13. http://www.heartland.org/events/WashingtonDC09/index.html - Third International Conference on Climate Change held in Washington, DC, June 2, 2009.
14. http://www.heartland.org/custom/semod_policybot/pdf/22835.pdf - Heartland 2008 Report (50 pages) on “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate” [Summary for Policymakers of the 2008 Report of the NIPCC.]
15. http://www.heartland.org/books/NIPCCFulltoc.html - Climate Change Reconsidered: Outline of NIPCC Report expected in May 2009.
16. http://www.nipccreport.org/ - Climate Change Reconsidered: The (868 page) Report of the NIPCC, published on June 2, 2009.
17. http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/nongovernmental-international-panel-on-climate-change-nipcc-2009-report - Summary of the NIPCC Report Findings and Conclusions, published on June 3, 2009.
18. http://www.sepp.org/ - Science & Environmental Policy Project.
19. http://www.sepp.org/publications/GWbooklet/withfigures.html - The Scientific Case Against The Global Climate Treaty by Fred Singer, July 1999.
20. http://www.sepp.org/publications/Kyoto%20not%20backed%20by%20Science-May%202002.doc - The Kyoto Protocol is not backed by Science, May 2002.
21. http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2674E64F-802A-23AD-490B-BD9FAF4DCDB7 - U.S. Senate Minority Report: More Than 700 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims.
22. http://www.petitionproject.org/ - GlobalWarming Petition Project, signed by more than 31,000 scientists.
23. www.co2science.org - Craig Idso’s website on CO2 Science.
24. http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming - Global Warming Science.
25. http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_SimplifiedNutshell.htm - Global Warming - the Short Version of Why the Anthropogenic CO2 Theory is Wrong.
26. http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=54 - International Climate Science Coalition, The Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change.
27. http://www.climatescienceinternational.org - Website for International Climate Science Coalition.
28. http://globalwarmingclearinghouse.blogspot.com - Global Warming Clearinghouse with references to key reports, articles, papers and blogs with the latest information available on Global Warming.
29. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10783 - Don Easterbrook article on “Global Cooling is Here,” 11/2/08.
30. http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20090416/bs_prweb/prweb2329394_2 - Web Article on Natural GW/GC (global cooling) cycles, 4/16/09.
31. http://www.globalweathercycles.com/ - Global Weather Cycles eBook by Meteorologist David Dilley.
32. http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/moregw.htm - The Myth of Global Warming.
33. http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/fig8.htm - Global Temperature Anomalies (1979-2002).
34. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzSzItt6h-s - The Great Global Warming Swindle – Produced by WAGTV.
35. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io-Tb7vTamY - Global Warming Hoax.
36. http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming.html - The Global Warming Scam.
37. http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/38574742.html - The Amazing Story Behind the Global Warming Scam.
38. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDI2NVTYRXU&feature=related - Al Gore Debates Global Warming.
39. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI&feature=related - Climate Change – Is CO2 the Cause?
40. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fCP_nHRjP8&feature=channel - Evidence CO2 does not cause dangerous Global warming.
41. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/ - Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler? A tale of two thermometers, Steven Goddard, posted in Science, 5/2/08.
42. http://www.petitionproject.org/gw_article/GWReview_OISM300.pdf - Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Arthur Robinson, et. al., 2007.
43. http://www.discovery.org/v/30 - The Global Warming Myth – Dr. Noah Robinson, Telecosm 2007.
44. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html - Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System.
45. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html#anchor2108263 - Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective.
46. http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2007/6/21/123227.shtml?s=al&promo_code=35F1-1 - Canadian Professor: Prepare for Global Cooling.
47. The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming, Christopher C. Horner, 2007.
48. http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/PAS.htm - Position of the Geological Science Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences on the Threat of Global Warming.
49. http://www.climatecooling.org - Global Climate Cooling Facts.
50. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months - January 2008, 4 sources say “globally cooler” in the past 12 months.
51. http://www.metro.us/us/comic.xml?path=%2fus%2farticle%2f2009%2f04%2f27%2f04%2f4243-82%2findex.xml&__toolbar=0&id=comp:000049c059d0:000000508d:16fe - Global cooling (shown in four data sets).
52. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html - Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System.
53. http://video.newsmax.com/?bcpid=20972460001&bclid=22770166001&bctid=23619354001?s=al&promo_code=8009-1 - Interview with Dr. William Gray, Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University on “Global Warming Not Our Biggest Problem.”
54. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/jgr07/M&M.JGR07-background.pdf - Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data, Ross McKitrick and Patrick Michaels.
55. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/05/global-warming-causing-carbon-dioxide-increases-a-simple-model/ - Global Warming Causing CO2 Increases: A Simple Model, Roy Spencer.
56. http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=471&Itemid=1 - Mankind has an insignificant impact on the climate of planet earth, Jay Lehr, Ph.D., Science Director of the Heartland Institute, USA.
57. http://www.sydneyminingclub.org/presentations/2008/november/plimer/player.html - Human-Induced Climate Change: A Load of Hot Air - Professor Ian Plimer.
58. http://joannenova.com.au - The Skepitcs Handbook on Global Warming, written by Joanne Nova, former believer in GHG, 2009.
59. http://www.fraserinstitute.org/Commerce.Web/product_files/CriticalTopicsInGlobalWarming.pdf - Critical Topics in Global Warming: Supplementary Analysis of the Independent Summary for Policymakers, Fraser Institute, March 2009.
60. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change - Wikipedia article on Scientific Opinion on Climate Change.
61. http://www.skepticalscience.com - Skeptical Science, Examining the science of Global Warming skepticism.
62. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/docs/suppressed-epa-memo-on-global-warming.pdf -Proposed NCEE Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for GHG Emissions under the Clean Air Act, Mar. 09.
63. http://carbon-sense.com/2009/09/13/climate-skeptics-090911 - PowerPoint slide show explaining the Climate Skeptics’ scientific arguments against the threats of human-caused Global Warming and major problems associated with proposed Cap-n-Trade legislation.
64. http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/no-man-made-global-warming.pdf - Man-made Global Warming does not Exist, October 2009.
65. http://carbon-sense.com/2009/10/11/ipcc-science-scrutinised - Scrutiny of UN IPCC Climate Science.
66. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/docs/a-call-to-truth-prudence-and-protection-of-the-poor.pdf - A Call to Truth, Prudence, and Protection of the Poor: An Evangelical Response to Global Warming, The Cornwall Alliance, 2006.
67. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/blog/item/movie-debunks-global-warming-hype - Cornwall Alliance introduces movie “Not Evil Just Wrong” that showcases the human cost of global warming hype, October 2009.
68. http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/monckton_2009.pdf - Christopher Monckton presentation on the Global Warming alarmism using statistics and charts – October 2009.
69. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/press_releases/Press-Release_No-Climate-Crisis.pdf - Proved: There is no Climate Crisis, Paper by Christopher Monckton, July 2008.
70. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html - Climate Change: This is the worst scientific scandal of our generation, Christopher Booker, November 28, 2009.
71. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece - Climate Change Data Dumped, Nov. 29, 2009.
72. http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_Category=32 - National Center for Policy Analysis list of documents exposing Climate Change political agenda, December 2009.
73. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/Monckton-Caught%20Green-Handed%20Climategate%20Scandal.pdf - ClimateGate: Caught Green-Handed, An SPPI Paper by Christopher Monckton, November 30, 2009.
74. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/450_peer_reviewed_papers.pdf - 450 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of AGW-Caused Global Warming, November 16, 2009.
75. http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/05/21/disproving-the-anthropogenic-global-warming-agw-problem - Disproving the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Problem – by Leonard Weinstein on April 25, 2009.
76. http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork08/PowerPoint/Tuesday/miskolczi.pdf - Physics of the Planetary Greenhouse Effect, Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, March 2008.
77. http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork08/PowerPoint/Tuesday/zagoni.pdf - Some Paleoclimatic Consequences of Dr. Miskolczi’s New Greenhouse Theory, Dr. Miklos Zagoni, March 2008.
78. http://landshape.org/dokuwiki/doku.php?id=introduction - The New Climate Theory of Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi.
79. http://met.hu/doc/idojaras/vol111001_01.pdf - Greenhouse Effect in Semi-transparent Planetary Atmospheres, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi, January 2007.
80. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero - The Smoking Gun at Darwin Zero, Willis Eschenbach, Dec. 12, 2009.
81. http://seoblackhat.com/2007/03/04/global-warming-on-mars-pluto-triton-and-jupiter/ - Global Warming on Mars, Pluto, Triton and Jupiter.
82. http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/billbell.pdf - The Scam of Our Lifetime, Global Warming Caused by Human-made CO2?, Advertisement published in Calgary paper in 2009.
83. http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/188.pdf - The IPCC, the “Hockey Stick” Curve, and the Illusion of Experience, by Stephen McIntyre & Ross McKitrick, November 18, 2003.
84. http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/146138 - Climate Change is Natural: 100 Reasons Why, UK Daily Express, December 15, 2009.
85. http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/180_Eugenics.pdf - Science and Politics: Global Warming and Eugenics, Richard Lindzen (MIT), August 1995.
86. http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/fact_based_climate_debate/ - Fact-based Climate Debate, Lee Gerhard, IPCC Expert Reviewer, Dec. 17, 2009.
87. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html - The Graph of Temperature vs. Number of Stations.
88. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/cc.html - Global Warming: Competing Views – a webpage maintained by Ross McKitrick.
89. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/APEC-hockey.pdf - What is the ‘Hockey Stick’ Debate About?” Ross McKitrick, April 4, 2005.
90. http://www.cfact.org/a/1594/All-pain-no-gain - All Pain, No Gain, Oct. 8, 2009.
91. http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/grass-trees-climate-food.pdf - Grasses, Trees, Climate and Food, by the Carbon Sense Coalition, March 2010.
92. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,686697,00.html - A Superstorm for Global Warming Research, April 2010.
93. http://www.cfact.org/a/1717/Lord-Monckton-at-Bonn-climate-talks - Lord Monckton at Bonn UN Climate Talks, April 9, 2010.
94. http://www.cfact.org/a/1718/Global-warmings-weak-links - Global Warming’s Weak Links, April 9, 2010.
95. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/apr/07/global-warmings-unscientific-method/ - Global Warming’s Unscientific Method, April 7, 2010.
96. http://wattsupwiththat.com/climategate - Everything about Climategate.
97. http://www.climate-skeptic.com - Climate Skeptic website.
98. http://www.coyoteblog.com/Skeptics_Guide_to_Anthropogenic_Global_Warming_v1.0.pdf - A Skeptical Layman’s Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming v1.01, Warren Meyer, July 3, 2007.
99. http://www.climate-skeptic.com/Climate%20Presentation%20Annotated%201-1-2010.pdf - Catastrophe Denied: A Critique of Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming Theory, Warren Meyer, November 10, 2009.
100. http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2010/01/catastrophe-denied-the-science-of-the-skeptics-position.html - Catastrophe Denied: The Science of the Skeptic’s Position, Warren Meyer, January 24, 2010.
101. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1004/S00006.htm - Science, Climate Change and Integrity, Royal Society of New Zealand, April 7, 2010.
102. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html - Global Warming Test, a simple ten question test.
103. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/two_dead_elephants.pdf - Two Dead Elephants in Parliament, Malcolm Roberts, Feb. 7, 2010.
104. http://www.minemanagers.com.au/client_images/895936.pdf - Testimony of Roy W. Spencer Before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on July 22, 2008.
105. http://www.noconsensus.org/ipcc-audit/findings-main-page.php - There is No “Scientific Consensus” on Global Warming – Citizen Audit Main Findings [on 2007 UN IPCC report] released on April 14, 2010.
106. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/climate_science_corrupted.pdf - Climate Science Corrupted, John McLean, Nov. 20, 2009.
107. http://mclean.ch/climate/global_warming.htm - Global Warming Issues, posted by John McLean.
108. http://www.co2science.org/education/truthalerts/v13/cowpea.php - CO2 Truth-Alert Archive, April 2010.
109. http://international-environmental-affairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/new-scientist-does-about-turn-on-global-warming#ixzz0lKJjIRwG - ‘New Scientist’ Does About Turn on Global Warming, April 16, 2010.
110. http://www.cfact.org/a/1732/Questions-posed-for-Kerry-Lieberman-on-new-climateenergy-bill - Questions posed for Kerry, Lieberman on new climate-energy bill, May 12, 2010.
111. http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/884.pdf - Understand Climate Science Before Making Policy, William Happer, May 14, 2010.
112. http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/885.pdf - Understand Climate Science Before Making Climate Policy, Roger Cohen, May 14, 2010.
113. http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/886.pdf - Links to a Sampling of Scientific Literature, Reports, Presentations, and Other Material, May 14, 2010.
114. http://cei.org/news-release/2010/05/11/kerry-graham-lieberman-bill-huge-payoff-big-business - Kerry-(Graham)-Lieberman Bill a Hugh Payoff to Big Business, May 11, 2010.
115. http://www.answersingenesis.org/articles/arj/v3/n1/bible-science-perspective-on-global-warming - A Proposed Bible-Science Perspective on Global Warming, - Rod Martin, 5/26/10.
116. http://opinion.financialpost.com/2010/06/06/legal-verdict-manmade-global-warming-science-doesn%E2%80%99t-withstand-scrutiny/ - Legal Verdict: Manmade Global Warming Science Doesn’t Withstand Scrutiny.
117. http://www.probeinternational.org/UPennCross.pdf - Global Warming Advocacy Science: A Cross Examination.
118. http://opinion.financialpost.com/2010/06/13/the-ipcc-consensus-on-climate-change-was-phoney-says-ipcc-insider - The IPCC consensus on climate change was phoney, says IPCC insider.
119. http://www.firstthings.com/article/2011/05/the-truth-about-greenhouse-gases - William Happer article on the dubious science of the climate crusaders.
120. http://blogs.forbes.com/patrickmichaels/2011/05/19/sound-fury-and-the-policy-of-climate-change - OpEd piece by Patrick Michaels on Climate of Fear in the May 2011 of the Forbes magazine.
121. http://gisandscience.com/2010/05/17/national-academy-of-sciences-to-release-three-reports-in-the-americas-climate-choices-study-on-may-19 - National Academy of Sciences (NAS) release of three reports in the “America’s Climate Choices” Study on May 19, 2011.
122. http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=05192010 – Press release accompanying the NAS “America’s Climate Choices” Study.
123. http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2011/TWTW%202011-5-21.pdf – The (5/21/11) Report by The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), www.sepp.org.
124. http://www.galileomovement.com.au/galileo_movement.php - Announcement of the Galileo Movement in Australia in May 2011.
125. http://climatecommission.govspace.gov.au/files/2011/05/Climate-Commission-Science-Report-Key-Messages1.pdf - Australian Government Climate Commission Report – The Critical Decade: Key messages.
126. http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/MediaRelease20110523.pdf - The Galileo Movement response to the Australian Climate Commission Report.
127. http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/Report20110523.pdf - Exposing the Climate Commission’s unscientific ‘Key Messages’ in its report.
Heinz Lycklama - email@example.com
Last modified: May 24, 2011