An Independent Analysis
of Global Warming [Updated
December 1, 2009]
1. UN IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).
2. U.S. Senate Minority Report, published and updated March 16, 2009.
3. NIPCC Report "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate" published April 2008.
4. NIPCC Report "Climate Change Reconsidered" published June 2, 2009.
5. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference Papers, March 2009.
6. International Climate Change Conference Papers, March 2008, March 2009 and June 2009.
7. Global Warming Petition Project wtih 31,000+ signatures from scientists.
References for these documents as well as many others used to perform my analysis are listed below.To me the key issues/questions to be resolved were:
1. Has there been a GW trend in the recent past?
2. Is GW due to anthropogenic causes, e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2)?
3. Is GW due to natural causes?
4. Do we need to do something about GW immediately?
5. Is the recommended solution for GW based on good science?
6. Who is hurt by the recommended GW solution?
7. What conclusions can we draw from the analysis?
8. What should the GW community do next?
My analysis produced some surprising results:
1. The number of climate scientists who dissent from the UN IPCC report is at least ten times greater than the number of climate scientists who contributed to the report.
2. The global temperature changes (up and down) have been more extreme over the last few thousand years than we are experiencing today.
3. Many climate scientists have determined that we are now entering a period of global cooling (GC.)
4. There is no scientific consensus on the extent of GW today.
5. There is no scientific consensus on the cause(s) of GW.
6. The assumption of GW due to human activity has much lower correlation with average temperature data than the assumption of GW due to natural causes.
7. The science underlying GW is far from settled.
8. The views of dissenting climate scientists have not been adequately considered in the UN IPCC reports.
9. The implementation of the "consensus" GW solution is not very likely to be cost effective.
Details of my analysis can be found in GWanalysis.htm (or GWanalysis.pdf). The analysis provides reasons for my conclusions and offers some suggestions on what the GW community can do next. As scientists we need to get the science underlying GW right first so that policy makers and politicians have the most recent and accurate scientific information available about the extent and causes of GW. This information will then enable policy makers and politicians to recommend the appropriate solution and to establish good public policy based on good science.Footnote:
Climate scientists should pay special attention
to the last finding
documented by the NIPCC on page 8 in the Executive Summary section of their "Climate
Change Reconsidered" report:
"There
can be little doubt that ethanol
mandates and
subsidies have made both food and energy more, not less,
expensive
and therefore less available to a growing population. The
extensive damage to natural ecosystems already caused
by this
poor policy decision, and the much greater destruction yet to
come, are a high price to pay for refusing to understand and
utilize the true science of climate
change."
Let’s
make sure that we use good science in establishing public policies
related to
climate change!
For more information on this topic
contact:
Dr. Heinz Lycklama [Professional Bio]
Email: heinz@osta.com
Website:
www.osta.com
References [Updated December 13, 2009]
-
1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change - Wikipedia writeup on “Climate Change.”
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming - Wikipedia writeup on “Global Warming.”
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change - Wikipedia writeup on IPCC.
4. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Causes_of_climate_change - The Encyclopedia of Earth article on “Causes of Climate Change.”
5. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf - Report of WG1 of IPCC, Summary for Policymakers – 2007.
6. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/wg1-report-2007-02.pdf - PowerPoint presentation on the Physical Science Basis for Climate Change.
7. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-ts.pdf - Technical Summary Report of WG1 of IPCC.
8. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html - U. S. EPA article on “Past Climate Change.”
9. http://www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20070201_monckton.pdf - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007 Analysis and Summary, February 2007, by Lord Christopher Monckton.
10. http://climatecongress.ku.dk/presentations - Presentations made at the Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen, March 10-12, 2009.
11. http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork08/proceedings.html - The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change held in NYC, March 2-4, 2008.
12. http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork09/proceedings.html# - International Climate Change Conference held in NYC – March 8-10, 2009.
13. http://www.heartland.org/events/WashingtonDC09/index.html - Third International Conference on Climate Change held in Washington, DC, June 2, 2009.
14. http://www.heartland.org/custom/semod_policybot/pdf/22835.pdf - Heartland 2008 Report (50 pages) on “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate” [Summary for Policymakers of the 2008 Report of the NIPCC.]
15. http://www.heartland.org/books/NIPCCFulltoc.html - Climate Change Reconsidered: Outline of NIPCC Report expected in May 2009.
16. http://www.nipccreport.org/ - Climate Change Reconsidered: The (868 page) Report of the NIPCC, published on June 2, 2009.
17. http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/nongovernmental-international-panel-on-climate-change-nipcc-2009-report - Summary of the NIPCC Report Findings and Conclusions, published on June 3, 2009.
18. http://www.sepp.org/ - Science & Environmental Policy Project.
19. http://www.sepp.org/publications/GWbooklet/withfigures.html - The Scientific Case Against The Global Climate Treaty by Fred Singer, July 1999.
20. http://www.sepp.org/publications/Kyoto%20not%20backed%20by%20Science-May%202002.doc - The Kyoto Protocol is not backed by Science, May 2002.
21. http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2674E64F-802A-23AD-490B-BD9FAF4DCDB7 - U.S. Senate Minority Report: More Than 700 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims.
22. http://www.petitionproject.org/ - GlobalWarming Petition Project, signed by more than 31,000 scientists.
23. www.co2science.org - Craig Idso’s website on CO2 Science.
24. http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming - Global Warming Science.
25. http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_SimplifiedNutshell.htm - Global Warming - the Short Version of Why the Anthropogenic CO2 Theory is Wrong.
26. http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=54 - International Climate Science Coalition, The Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change.
27. http://www.climatescienceinternational.org - Website for International Climate Science Coalition.
28. http://globalwarmingclearinghouse.blogspot.com - Global Warming Clearinghouse with references to key reports, articles, papers and blogs with the latest information available on Global Warming.
29. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10783 - Don Easterbrook article on “Global Cooling is Here,” 11/2/08.
30. http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20090416/bs_prweb/prweb2329394_2 - Web Article on Natural GW/GC (global cooling) cycles, 4/16/09.
31. http://www.globalweathercycles.com/ - Global Weather Cycles eBook by Meteorologist David Dilley.
32. http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/moregw.htm - The Myth of Global Warming.
33. http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/fig8.htm - Global Temperature Anomalies (1979-2002).
34. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzSzItt6h-s - The Great Global Warming Swindle – Produced by WAGTV.
35. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io-Tb7vTamY - Global Warming Hoax.
36. http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming.html - The Global Warming Scam.
37. http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/38574742.html - The Amazing Story Behind the Global Warming Scam.
38. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDI2NVTYRXU&feature=related - Al Gore Debates Global Warming.
39. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI&feature=related - Climate Change – Is CO2 the Cause?
40. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fCP_nHRjP8&feature=channel - Evidence CO2 does not cause dangerous Global warming.
41. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/ - Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler? A tale of two thermometers, Steven Goddard, posted in Science, 5/2/08.
42. http://www.petitionproject.org/gw_article/GWReview_OISM300.pdf - Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Arthur Robinson, et. al., 2007.
43. http://www.discovery.org/v/30 - The Global Warming Myth – Dr. Noah Robinson, Telecosm 2007.
44. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html - Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System.
45. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html#anchor2108263 - Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective.
46. http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2007/6/21/123227.shtml?s=al&promo_code=35F1-1 - Canadian Professor: Prepare for Global Cooling.
47. The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming, Christopher C. Horner, 2007.
48. http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/PAS.htm - Position of the Geological Science Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences on the Threat of Global Warming.
49. http://www.climatecooling.org - Global Climate Cooling Facts.
50. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months - January 2008, 4 sources say “globally cooler” in the past 12 months.
51. http://www.metro.us/us/comic.xml?path=%2fus%2farticle%2f2009%2f04%2f27%2f04%2f4243-82%2findex.xml&__toolbar=0&id=comp:000049c059d0:000000508d:16fe - Global cooling (shown in four data sets).
52. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html - Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System.
53. http://video.newsmax.com/?bcpid=20972460001&bclid=22770166001&bctid=23619354001?s=al&promo_code=8009-1 - Interview with Dr. William Gray, Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University on “Global Warming Not Our Biggest Problem.”
54. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/jgr07/M&M.JGR07-background.pdf - Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data, Ross McKitrick and Patrick Michaels.
55. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/05/global-warming-causing-carbon-dioxide-increases-a-simple-model/ - Global Warming Causing CO2 Increases: A Simple Model, Roy Spencer.
56. http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=471&Itemid=1 - Mankind has an insignificant impact on the climate of planet earth, Jay Lehr, Ph.D., Science Director of the Heartland Institute, USA.
57. http://www.sydneyminingclub.org/presentations/2008/november/plimer/player.html - Human-Induced Climate Change: A Load of Hot Air - Professor Ian Plimer.
58. http://joannenova.com.au - The Skepitcs Handbook on Global Warming, written by Joanne Nova, former believer in GHG, 2009.
59. http://www.fraserinstitute.org/Commerce.Web/product_files/CriticalTopicsInGlobalWarming.pdf - Critical Topics in Global Warming: Supplementary Analysis of the Independent Summary for Policymakers, Fraser Institute, March 2009.
60. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change - Wikipedia article on Scientific Opinion on Climate Change.
61. http://www.skepticalscience.com - Skeptical Science, Examining the science of Global Warming skepticism.
62. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/docs/suppressed-epa-memo-on-global-warming.pdf -Proposed NCEE Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for GHG Emissions under the Clean Air Act, Mar. 09.
63. http://carbon-sense.com/2009/09/13/climate-skeptics-090911 - PowerPoint slide show explaining the Climate Skeptics’ scientific arguments against the threats of human-caused Global Warming and major problems associated with proposed Cap-n-Trade legislation.
64. http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/no-man-made-global-warming.pdf - Man-made Global Warming does not Exist, October 2009.
65. http://carbon-sense.com/2009/10/11/ipcc-science-scrutinised - Scrutiny of UN IPCC Climate Science.
66. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/docs/a-call-to-truth-prudence-and-protection-of-the-poor.pdf - A Call to Truth, Prudence, and Protection of the Poor: An Evangelical Response to Global Warming, The Cornwall Alliance, 2006.
67. http://www.cornwallalliance.org/blog/item/movie-debunks-global-warming-hype - Cornwall Alliance introduces movie “Not Evil Just Wrong” that showcases the human cost of global warming hype, October 2009.
68. http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/monckton_2009.pdf - Christopher Monckton presentation on the Global Warming alarmism using statistics and charts – October 2009.
69. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/press_releases/Press-Release_No-Climate-Crisis.pdf - Proved: There is no Climate Crisis, Paper by Christopher Monckton, July 2008.
70. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html - Climate Change: This is the worst scientific scandal of our generation, Christopher Booker, November 28, 2009.
71. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece - Climate Change Data Dumped, Nov. 29, 2009.
72. http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_Category=32 - National Center for Policy Analysis list of documents exposing Climate Change political agenda, December 2009.
73. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/Monckton-Caught%20Green-Handed%20Climategate%20Scandal.pdf - ClimateGate: Caught Green-Handed, An SPPI Paper by Christopher Monckton, November 30, 2009.
74. http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/450_peer_reviewed_papers.pdf - 450 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of AGW-Caused Global Warming, November 16, 2009.
75. http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/05/21/disproving-the-anthropogenic-global-warming-agw-problem - Disproving the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Problem – by Leonard Weinstein on April 25, 2009.
76. http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork08/PowerPoint/Tuesday/miskolczi.pdf - Physics of the Planetary Greenhouse Effect, Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, March 2008.
77. http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork08/PowerPoint/Tuesday/zagoni.pdf - Some Paleoclimatic Consequences of Dr. Miskolczi’s New Greenhouse Theory, Dr. Miklos Zagoni, March 2008.
78. http://landshape.org/dokuwiki/doku.php?id=introduction - The New Climate Theory of Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi.
79. http://met.hu/doc/idojaras/vol111001_01.pdf - Greenhouse Effect in Semi-transparent Planetary Atmospheres, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi, January 2007.
80. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero - The Smoking Gun at Darwin Zero, Willis Eschenbach, Dec. 12, 2009.
Heinz Lycklama - heinz@osta.com
Last modified: December 13, 2009